Integrated Transport Economics and Appraisal - TEMpro 5

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TEMpro 5

Introduction

The TEMpro program has been designed for fast and efficient access to the national Trip End Model projections of growth in travel demand, and the underlying car ownership and planning data projections.

The derivation of these figures is described in the accompanying guidance note "Trip End projections - version 5". The figures are consistent with the demand inputs used in the National Transport Model, currently under development. Publication of these inputs through the medium of TEMpro allows local models to be developed on a fully consistent basis. Further aspects of the NTM modelling framework will be published in due course.

Use

TEMpro 5 has been developed to provide suitable growth factors for input to multi-modal models.

TEMpro 5 does not include traffic figures, or any estimate of growth in trip length; these are outputs of a multi-modal modelling process. The function of producing forecasts of traffic growth nationally or on particular types of road link will be met by other outputs from the National Transport Model system.

Since the previous version of TEMpro there have been various changes in the derivation of the planning data, car ownership and trip end projections - figures are not directly comparable between versions. Documentation of changes is set out in the guidance note.

In particular, note that the modal split figures in TEMpro 5 reflect only the impact of the demographic factors (which are taken to include the expected changes in car ownership as people get richer). They represent a reference case at constant generalised cost and constant value of time. It is then for local models to take account of:

  • changes in the generalised cost of travel by each mode
  • other impacts of rising incomes - typically represented as increasing travellers' value of time over time, leading to longer trips and a shift towards the more expensive modes
  • any local policy action to influence travellers' "taste" for different modes.

Advice on approximate methods for representing these factors in highway-only models is included in the accompanying guidance note.

Availability

TEMpro consists of a program (TEMPRO.exe) and associated regional data files. It is not necessary to have a complete set of data files in order to run the software.

The software will run on a PC with a Pentium 133MHz chip or better. The program needs to be installed on a PC hard drive or network drive, and will only read data files from the appropriate subdirectory. The software and/or guidance note can be downloaded at no charge and may be copied and distributed freely.